Phillips Curve and the Equalibrium Unemployment Rate

A time-varying Phillips curve was estimated as a means to examine the changing nature of the relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate in Australia. The implied time-varying equilibrium unemployment rate was generated and the analysis showed the important role played by variations in the slope of the Phillips curve in changing the equilibrium unemployment rate. The deviations of actual unemployment rates from the estimated equilibrium unemployment rates also performed remarkedly well as measures of inflationary pressure.