In Task 2, the project team designed the Phase 1 case study to represent the 'baseline' plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) fleet of 2030 that investigates the effects of seventeen (17) value propositions (see Table 1 for complete list). By creating a 'baseline' scenario, a consistent set of assumptions and model parameters can be established for use in more elaborate Phase 2 case studies. The project team chose southern California as the Phase 1 case study location because the economic, environmental, social, and regulatory conditions are conducive to the advantages of PHEVs. Assuming steady growth of PHEV sales over the next two decades, PHEVs are postulated to comprise approximately 10% of the area's private vehicles (about 1,000,000 vehicles) in 2030. New PHEV models introduced in 2030 are anticipated to contain lithium-ion batteries and be classified by a blended mileage description (e.g., 100 mpg, 150 mpg) that demonstrates a battery size equivalence of a PHEV-30. Task 3 includes the determination of data, models, and analysis procedures required to evaluate the Phase 1 case study scenario. Some existing models have been adapted to accommodate the analysis of the business model and establish relationships between costs and value to the respective consumers. Other data, such as the anticipated California generation mix and southern California drive cycles, have also been gathered for use as inputs. The collection of models that encompasses the technical, economic, and financial aspects of Phase 1 analysis has been chosen and is described in this deliverable. The role of PHEV owners, utilities (distribution systems, generators, independent system operators (ISO), aggregators, or regional transmission operators (RTO)), facility owners, financing institutions, and other third parties are also defined.
