Policy Analysis Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model: A Review of Experience at the IMPACT Project

Originally presented at the Fourth International Symposium on Forecasting, London, July 1984, this article reviews the role in policy analysis of the ORANI model of the Australian economy. A schematic description of the model is given. Conceptual issues concerning the use of such models for counterfactual policy analysis and for explicit forecasting are canvassed. A taxonomy is presented of policy applications of ORANI classifying both the policy issues addressed and the range of information obtained from the applications. Details of selected applications are discussed with the aim of illustrating the main themes which arise in policy studies conducted using the model. Copyright 1985 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.