Population dynamics in Gambia: an ARIMA approach

Employing annual time series data on total population in Gambia from 1960 to 2017, I model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Gambia annual total population is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 2, 1) model and our diagnostic tests also indicate that the presented model is stable. The results of the study reveal that total population in Gambia will continue to gradually rise in the next three decades. In order to take advantage of the expected increase in total population in Gambia, 4 policy recommendations have been proposed for consideration by the Gambian policy makers.