Population projection of Oman: implications for future development

Purpose – Knowledge about current size and structure of a country's population is needed for the formulation and implementation of policies and programs in almost all sectors of public life. The purpose of this paper is to provide population projection for Oman, using population census and family health survey data. Design/methodology/approach – Component method is used for projecting future population of Oman. Population Census data of 2003 by sex and by five‐year age groups were used. The base life expectancy of Oman is assumed to be 73 years and the base total fertility considered as 5.1 children per woman. Findings – Depending upon the achievement of replacement fertility by the year 2025 or 2030 or 2035 the population of Oman in 2050 will vary from 4.5 million to 5.0 million. The different scenarios of population projection indicate that the population of Oman will not be stabilized before 2100. Research limitations/implications – Population projection depends on assumptions about mortality, fertility, base life expectancy and migration. If these assumptions change then the projections will also change. Practical implications – Because of high fertility in the past, women in the reproductive ages will increase for up to several decades. Thus, population growth will continue because of momentum effect, even if Oman achieves replacement fertility say in 2030. The age at marriage will increase. Social implications – The rapid socio‐economic development and increased women empowerment will create a new outlook and ideas about lifestyles, leading to a decline in fertility. The decline in fertility is strongly related to social, health, education, employment opportunities of women and economic development, which through a variety of mechanisms, reduces the fertility desired and increases the fertility regulation through contraception, birth spacing and increased age at marriage of females. Because of increase in life expectancy and falling birth rate, the absolute number of the elderly population will have enormous impact on health care needs and hospitalization. Originality/value – This paper deals with the population projection of Oman. Timely and accurate information about population trends is crucial for the socio‐economic development of a country. Knowledge about current size and structure of a country's population is needed for the formulation and implementation of policies and programs in almost all sectors of public life such as health, education and employment.