Population Size vs. Number of Crimes: Is the Relationship Superlinear?

Do large cities suffer from an even greater incidence of crime? According to the Urban Scaling Theory, the number of crimes committed may follow a superlinear relationship as a function of the population size of city. For example, if the population size increases by 100%, the incidence of crime may increase by 120%. We analyzed a total of 11 types of crimes which had occurred in about 250 cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants in the United States during the period of 1995-2010. We found that the relationship between the number of crimes counts and the population size of cities have followed a superlinear power function without exception in all 176 cases. However, significant variations exist among the superlinear relations by types of crime. We also found that the values of scale exponents display time-invariant pattern during the 16-year period.