Prévision des Cycles Budgétaires dans les Etats membres de l'Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA) :Une approche basée sur les Chaînes de Markov

In this article, we model the various budgetary states of the eight member countries of the WAEMU using Markov Chains. A panel of 512 observations was constructed from BCEAO database covering the period 1960-2023. Our results highlight a dispersed convergence of states towards the budget deficit threshold imposed through the macroeconomic convergence criteria and identify Mali, Senegal and Benin as the top performers in the region in terms of effective deficit management.Moreover, fiscal consolidation is necessary for Côte d’Ivoire ,Guinea-Bissau, Burkina-Faso, Togo and Niger to stabilize their budget deficits in the long term and further boost economic growth.