Predictability and Complexity : The Case of the Export and Import as GDP Components in the Romanian Economy

After treating Gross Fixed Capital Formation and Domestic and Public Consumption, we continue with the problem of the relation between predictability and complexity in Romanian economy, analyzing other two components of GDP: Import and Export. The macroeconomic forecasting is a very difficult task due to the complexity of economic behavior.Constructing reliable time series models is difficult due to short data series, high noise levels, nonliniarities and nonstationarities. This series of three articles exemplify the application of the theory of complexity and predictability as an alternative to model the economy evolution of GDP.These demonstrate that performance can be obtained using complexity models