Predicting Above-Median and Below-Median Growth Rates

Multiannual periods of consecutive above-median or below-median growth rates in operating performance, called runs, have a substantial influence on firm valuations. For estimating the probability of an above-median or below-median run and utilizing information efficiently, we employ a stepwise regression to automatically identify the parsimonious indicator-specific set of economically and empirically meaningful variables. Our novel approach uses logit models to distinguish firms that will persistently grow above or below the median over a period of up to 6 years. The predictive power for sales growth rates is highest to discriminate between above-median and below-median growth rates, while the future behaviour of operating income and net income growth rates can partially be explained for below-median growth rates