Predicting participation intentions for optional energy services

In this paper we use conjoint analysis to predict participation intentions for an optional energy service offered by Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation (NMPC). In contrast to conjoint studies that use ordinary least squares regression to estimate a utility or preference function, we use an ordered probit model. For validation, we compare predicted participation from the probit model to actual behavior. We also compare predictions from Sawtooth Software's Adaptive Conjoint Analysis (ACA) software to actual behaviour. The predictions obtained from the ordered probit model are closer to actual behaviour than the predictions obtained from the linear model. We discuss possible reasons and implications for future research.