Predicting Recessions and Slowdowns: A Robust Approach

This paper defines business and growth rate cycles and describes the importance of key coincident indicators and reference chronologies, following reflections on the definition of a recession. The robustness of turning point forecasts based on the indicator approach to business and growth rate cycles is discussed. Since economies undergo structural changes over the course of a business cycle, and rapid structural changes are characteristic of developing economies in particular, practical methods for the analysis and prediction of business cycles need to be robust to such shifts. The recent Great Recession also underscores why “this time, it’s different†should not be considered a valid excuse for forecasting failure. [Working Paper No. 202]. URL:[http://www.cdedse.org/].