Predicting success in college on the basis of the results of unified national exam

This paper presents the results of econometric study on predicting first-year grade point average and dropout probability with national examination (EGE) results at the bachelor program in Economics in the Higher School of Economics. The use of a sum of four exams — math, social studies, Russian language and foreign language — shows worse fitting than a sum of three exams, excluding foreign language. In models with separate exams as regressors, the greatest effect on dependent variable provides math grades.