Predicting the Success of Startups Using Crunchbase and Linkedin Data

Startups are a key force driving economic development, and the success of these high-risk ventures can bring huge profits to venture capital firms. The ability to predict the success of startups is a major advantage for investors to outperform their competitors. In this study, we explore the potential of using publicly available LinkedIn profiles as an alternative and complementary data source to Crunchbase for predicting startup success. We provide a comprehensive review of the existing literature on the factors that influence startup success to create a large set of features for predictive modeling. We train two models for predicting startup success employing light gradient boosting that use LinkedIn data as a standalone and as a complementary data source, and compare them to baseline models based on Crunchbase data. We show that using LinkedIn as a complementary data source yields the best result with a mean auc value of 84%. We also provide a thorough analysis of what types of information contribute most to modeling startup success using the Shapley value method. Our models and analysis can be used to develop a decision support system to facilitate startup screening and the due diligence process for venture capital firms