Predicting turning points

This paper presents a new method for predicting turning points. The paper formally defines a turning point; develops a probit model for estimating the probability of a turning point; and then examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model. The model performs better than some other methods for predicting turning points.

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Year of publication:	2000
Authors:	Chin, Daniel M. ; Geweke, John F. ; Miller, Preston J.
Institutions:	Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Subject:	Econometric models

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	Staff Report.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Number 267
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712374