Prediction model of total farmland under the condition of unbalanced economic growth

The aim of this paper is to discuss the prediction method of the total farmland demand combining with the land utilization status and planning practice. [Method] We use the multiple regression prediction method and time series prediction method. [Result] By applying the data of farmland comprehensive production capacity, population development, changes of arable land, fixed assets investment and so on in Bijie Area, we have established the prediction models of total farmland demand, and determined the optimum model as the prediction proposal of total farmland in Bijie Area through evaluation and explanation. [Conclusion] The prediction proposal is compared with the "shadow index" of Bijie Area, which is instructed by the macro-control of Guizhou Province. Then the paper decomposes the "shadow index" into eight counties and cities, and realizes the combination of the prediction proposal and the" shadow index" which provides scientific basis for the compiling work of the land-use overall plan in Bijie Area.