Predictive Validity of Stated Preference Data: Evidence from Mountain Bike Park Visits Before and After Trail System Expansion

This paper investigates the validity of stated preference data for use in recreation demand estimation. We use stated preference and revealed preference data from users of a mountain bike park collected before and after an expansion of the trail system. The ex-ante stated preference data elicited before the change exhibits hypothetical bias, but, it would provide useful information for demand prediction. Key Words: hypothetical bias, recreation demand, revealed preference, stated preference