Probability segmenting and the social cost of draft evasion

While a number of papers have addressed the costs and benefits of conscription, only one paper - Warner and Negrussa (2005) - considers the social welfare costs that result from efforts to illegally evade the draft. In this note, we address legal draft evasion - in particular, the use by of personal social or political connections to gain access to "cushy" military assignments. To combat this phenomenon, we illustrate the use of a tool that we call "probability segmenting," essentially a form of draft lottery that at little cost should substantially reduce the number of cushy assignments and their associated social costs.