Projections de mortalité par cause de décès : Extrapolation tendancielle ou modèle âge-période-cohorte

Burgio (Alessandra), Frova (Luisa). - Mortality Projections by Causes of Death, Extrapolation of Trends, or Age-Period-Cohort Models An age-cohort model is used to project mortality from specific causes and the results are compared with those from a more determinist method of analyzing times series, based on an adjustment of period data by analytic functions. This method is applied to Italian statistics for those aged 60 and older. In this population neoplasms and cardio-vascular disease are important causes of death. The mortality rates used for five-year groups based on age, sex, and cause of death were supplied by WHO for 1951-1986. First, results from a projection for 1971-1986 based on death rates between 1951 and 1986 were compared with actual data. The death rate was then projected to 2020, on the basis of rates for the period 1951-1986. The results and theoritical considerations clearly show the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods of projection used.