Projections of future emissions and energy use from passenger cars as a result of policies in the EU with a dynamic model of technological change

Transport is the only sector in the EU in which greenhouse gas emissions are still rising. This paper uses the FTT (future technology transformation) framework to project energy use and emissions from passenger cars in the EU 27 until 2050. Projections are made based on four policy scenarios in order to explore the effect of different policies on penetration and diffusion of cleaner transport technologies. All our scenario projections support the dominance of hybrid cars in 2050. However, our results illustrate that strong emission targets cannot be achieved by only encouraging low-emitting cars, but requires strong policies targeting the cleanest cars. Further emission reductions can be achieved by non-pecuniary measures such as car use reductions and scrappage schemes.