Provoking Insurgency in a Federal State: Theory and Application to India

This paper presents a model of provocation in a federation, where the local government triggers an insurgency with a view to acquire the control of some economic assets with the help of the central government. Some econometric support for this model is found using data on the Naxalite conflict that affects eight states of India. The tests performed control for endogeneity of the local government’s police force interventions. They suggest that the latter are meant to amplify the violent activity of the insurgents, with a view to lure the central government to intervene and to help clear the ground for exploiting mineral deposits lying under the land of tribal people.