Quantitative method and model for forecasting R&D expenditures in China

Scientifically forecasting gross domestic expenditure devoted to research and development (GERD) and the ratio of GERD to GDP in the future is an important task in formulating long-term S&T development policies in China. For quite a long time, China mainly adopted expert opinion based on qualitative analysis to proceed to forecast. To make the forecasting more scientific and reliable, this paper puts forward a quantitative forecast method and model, which is already used in the estimation of the amounts of R&D activity in China over the next 15 years. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.