Réaction d'une population hétérogène à une perturbation. Un modèle d'interprétation des évolutions de mortalité en Russie

Avdeev (Alexandre), Blum (Alain), Zakharov (Serge), Andreev (Evgenij). - The reaction of a heterogeneous population to perturbation. An interpretative model of mortality trends in Russia The rapid increase in mortality in Russia during the past ten years is perplexing. Several authors have explored these movements in depth. In this paper, the authors offer a new interpretation of these dynamics which complements those put forward by previous authors. It shows that the dynamics cannot be studies without taking account of previous movements observed since the 1960s. They suggest that recent developments are the cumulative result of a compensation mechanism which followed the rapid decrease in mortality which occurred around 1985, and of the continuation of a deteriotation movement which began in the early 1960s. It does not represent a new trend to a rapidly deteriorating situation. To prove this and to explain these rapid fluctuations, the authors have developed a model based on hypotheses which involve heterogeneous populations. In addition to analyzing mortality in Russia, they provide new models which relate to the consequences of heterogeneity on the dynamics of mortality.