¿Realmente existe convergencia regional en México? Un modelo no lineal de datos panel TAR

This paper analyzes the hypothesis of regional convergence in Mexico for the period 1970-201 through a non-linear growth model. The methodology combines three approaches: the panel-data threshold autoregressive (TAR) model, the unit root tests in panel and the computation of the critical values by bootstrapping simulation. The empirical results of the nonlinear model applied to the per capita GDP of different groups of States in Mexico suggest that the proposed model is superior to the linear model and show evidence of partial and absolute convergence for the group of the eleven “richer” States in certain sub-periods. Surprisingly, considering the average of the eleven richer and combining it with the rest of the States convergence evidence was found. Furthermore, when all the States are compared, the hypothesis of divergence could not be rejected. These results show that convergence is present in groups of States with similar characteristics and specific periods, which reinforces the idea that there are convergence “clubs” in Mexico.