Reconsiderando o efeito Fisher: uma análise de cointegração entre taxas de juros e inflação [Rethinking the Fisher Effect: a co-integration analysis between interest rates and inflation]

This paper investigates the validity of the Fisher effect hypothesis that it is the interest rate which moves to adjust to the anticipated changes in the rate of inflation. The analysis is carried out with monthly data for the period 1980-97 for three countries with recent histories of chronic high inflation: Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. A co-integration analysis has provided evidence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between nominal interest rates and the inflation rate for the cases of Argentina and Brazil only.