Regionalized Cost Supply Potential of Bioenergy Crops and Residues in Colombia : A Hybrid Statistical Balance and Land Suitability Allocation Scenario Analysis

The Colombian agricultural sector has the capacity and ambition to reduce its land use and GHG emissions through sustainable intensification of livestock production. However, an appraisal of the impact of achieving such goal on the availability of land to produce bioenergy crops remains lacking. Moreover, previous assessments of the role bioenergy in Colombia have mostly focused on residues, in isolation of land use policies.To address this gap, we propose a hybrid statistical land balancing and suitability allocation approach to estimate long term projections of the cost–supply potential of bioenergy crops and residues. Regionalized to the departmental level, this approach could provide higher resolution than global assessments, while avoiding the complexity of spatially explicit methods. We investigated three scenarios covering the uncertainty of socioeconomic drivers and agricultural and livestock productivity factors.Our results suggest that pursuing progressive land use policies (SSP1 scenario) could release up to 14 Mha of land by 2050, which could be available to produce perennial bioenergy crops. The cumulative potential of crops in SSP1 could reach up to 2,200 PJ, where about half of this potential could be attained at 7 $ GJ -1 or less. Potential supply centers could be identified in Orinoquía, Andean, and Caribbean regions for energy crops and the Pacific region for residues. Our findings indicate that there could be an opportunity to create synergy between the low carbon development strategies of the land use and energy sectors in Colombia