Regression models for cyclic data

Geologists take slices through rock samples at a series of different orientations. Each slice is examined for a phenomenon which may occur in one of two states labelled clockwise and anticlockwise. The probability of an occurrence being in the clockwise state is dependent on the orientation. Motivated by these data, two models are presented that relate the probability of an event to orientation. Each model has two parameters, one identifying the orientation corresponding to the peak probability, and the other controlling the rate of change of probability with orientation. One model is a logistic model, whereas the other involves a power of the sine function. For the given data neither model consistently outperforms the other. Copyright 2003 Royal Statistical Society..