Restructuring of Value and Supply Chain in World’s Manufacturing Would Likely Lead to Reduced Trade and Container Volume Around the World

China’s entry to the World Trade Organisation in 2001 coincided with a period in world’s economic history where substantial increase in trade and container traffic, especially those associated with trade in semi-finished products and raw materials, was observed. This expansion coincided with the phenomenon of offshoring and contract manufacturing in many newly industrializing or emergent economies of the world such as Vietnam, Indonesia, China and India, that focuses on manufacturing as a driver of economic growth. Concomitant with the shift in manufacturing capacity for low-end products such as textiles and electronic components to the newly industrializing economies, there was also an expansion in container handling capacity and development for new and existing container ports around the world, especially critical transhipment ports that feed into the supply chain for semi-finished components and products around the world. Hence, consider the possibility that as the newly industrializing economies move up the value chain, and starts to agglomerate increasing fraction of the value and supply chain that feed into the final product, would there be a reduction in world trade? What would that portend for transhipment ports whose capacity was increased with the view that trade in semi-finished products and components is likely to increase in the foreseeable future? If over-capacity problems are to surface, how should the countries or economies with significant transhipment activities in trade cope with the possible substantial drop in trade arising from intra-supply chain movement of components and semi-finished products? Possible decline in trade coupled with a stable currency may have significant implications for the long run growth of the economy. Interested readers are invited to expand on the questions above