Rethinking the value of initial claims as a forecasting tool

The weekly numbers on initial claims for unemployment insurance convey key information about the labor market. But how reliable are claims in predicting changes in the much anticipated monthly employment report? According to a simple forecasting model, claims consistently send an accurate signal about employment during recessions but not during expansions.

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Year of publication:	1998
Authors:	McConnell, Margaret M.
Published in:	Current Issues in Economics and Finance. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York. - Vol. 4.1998, Nov, 11
Publisher:	Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Subject:	Unemployment insurance \| Forecasting \| Employment (Economic theory)

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Extent:	text/html application/pdf
Type of publication:	Article
Language:	English
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

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