RISK ANALYSIS: FAULT TREE ANALYSIS APPLICATION ON TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS OCCURED IN TURKEY

Traffic accidents is emerging as a significant risk that affects entire population in both developed and developing countries. Increasing use of motor vehicles, as a result of widespread use of highways for transportation and the developments in automotive sector is enhancing the risk of accidents. In this study, it is aimed to find risk factors in traffic accident and risk degree of these risk factors using traffic accident statistics between the years 2001-2007 obtained from TÜİK (Turkish Statistical Institute). For this purpose, using the fault tree analysis methodology, for each fault the probability of occurance of traffic accident as the main event, for each fault is revealed by risk factors and their interaction degrees. The result of this research shows that the order of degrees of 3-type-faults which were determined by TUIK traffic accident data, as follows: environmental faults, personal faults and vehicle-origin-faults. As a general result the risk for traffic accidents in Turkey, when each of 3 fault types are taken into consideration, has been calculated as 57,34%.