Risk analysis for innovative activities in production systems using product opportunity gap concept

Purpose: This paper presents a stepwise method for identification and analysis of innovative activities in production systems. The purpose of this paper is to provide a structure in order to propose the risk paradigms and factors corresponding to the innovative activities and evaluation of the impact of these activities on innovation decisions and investment. Design/methodology/approach: The model used here is an analytical approach that evaluates the impact of innovative activities on innovation decision and investment using product opportunity gap (POG) concept. This framework is applied for innovative activities of Asian industrial field, and the risk of innovative activities is calculated by weighted risk analysis method. In this method, the risk weights and intensities are estimated by the average of experts’ opinions in interviews. Findings: This implementation discovered some useful information being used by investors, innovators and policymakers for taking the best strategies and decisions in various innovation domains such as innovation management, risk management and innovation policy. The results of this study show that the product innovation is the most popular category of innovation that has occurred in Asian manufacturing industries, and the product innovation, marketing innovation and organizational innovation have the most influence on technology, economic and social changes intensity, respectively. Research limitations/implications: This study analyzed the risk of innovative activities after their occurrence and because of different views of experts, there were diverse and sometimes contradictory analyses of innovative activities risk. Originality/value: This paper links two separate and important sectors of innovation domain: innovation risk and innovation decision making and investment. POG plays the role of a bridge to connect the two mentioned sectors and shows how innovation causes the technological, economic and social changes. This paper also provides useful and practical information for innovation investors and decision makers to take the best decisions and to avoid the probable failures and losses.