"Examines the multidisciplinary applications, problems, and case histories in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probability in conjunction with real-world decision-making problems, including institutional, organizational, and political considerations. The author presents basic concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision-tree analysis; multi-objective risk impact analysis method); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies.The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters covering systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling An expanded appendix including the Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer's Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions made during emergent complex systems of systems A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises and problems that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and applications Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more"--
