Risk Related Non Linearities in Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Panel of Central and Eastern European Countries

This paper investigates the recent evolution of five Eastern European exchange rates. Our aim is twofold: to provide an up-to-date view of the predictability and main relations of spot rates with economic fundamentals and to derive some considerations about exchange rate regimes, capital flows, and risk appetite. We propose a non-linear specification where the non-linearity refers to the effect of the interest rate differential. The paper supports the view that given the relevance of capital flows and their sensitivity to risk adjusted yield differentials, the choice of exchange rate regime should be a matter of careful strategy. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003