Robust hidden Markov LQG problems
For linear quadratic Gaussian problems, this paper uses two risk-sensitivity operators defined by Hansen and Sargent (2007b) to construct decision rules that are robust to misspecifications of (1) transition dynamics for state variables and (2) a probability density over hidden states induced by Bayes' law. Duality of risk sensitivity to the multiplier version of min-max expected utility theory of Hansen and Sargent (2001) allows us to compute risk-sensitivity operators by solving two-player zero-sum games. Because the approximating model is a Gaussian probability density over sequences of signals and states, we can exploit a modified certainty equivalence principle to solve four games that differ in continuation value functions and discounting of time t increments to entropy. The different games express different dimensions of concerns about robustness. All four games give rise to time consistent worst-case distributions for observed signals. But in Games I-III, the minimizing players' worst-case densities over hidden states are time inconsistent, while Game IV is an LQG version of a game of Hansen and Sargent (2005) that builds in time consistency. We show how detection error probabilities can be used to calibrate the risk-sensitivity parameters that govern fear of model misspecification in hidden Markov models.
Year of publication: |
2010
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Authors: | Hansen, Lars Peter ; Mayer, Ricardo ; Sargent, Thomas |
Published in: |
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. - Elsevier, ISSN 0165-1889. - Vol. 34.2010, 10, p. 1951-1966
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Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Keywords: | Hidden Markov models Misspecification Kalman filter Robustness Entropy Certainty equivalence |
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