• 1 Introduction
  • 2 KLR-extensions over time and countries
  • 2.1 Reproducing the KLR approach
  • 2.2 Extending KLR over time
  • 2.3 Expanding KLR over countries
  • 2.4 Forecasting out-of-sample
  • 3 From composite indicators to logit models
  • 3.1 Two logit model alternatives
  • 3.2 The multinomial logit
  • 4 The impact of different crisis definitions
  • 5 Further lessons for improving forecasts
  • 5.1 Regional sample splits
  • 5.2 Shortening the sample
  • 5.3 Grasping contagion
  • 6 Conclusions
  • 6.1 Elements of practical early warning systems
  • 6.2 Policy discussion
  • References