Role of Exchange Rate Volatility in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices: Some Evidence from Japan

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on the degree of exchange rate pass-through in Japan for the period January 1975 to June 1997. Although several studies put forward theoretical arguments for the volatility-domestic import price relationship, only a very few studies produced empirical evidence. The volatility of contractual currency based exchange rate index returns was modelled using GARCH-type processes with skewed student t-distribution, capturing the typical nature of exchange rate returns. Using a three-state regime switching threshold model, we examine the response of import prices, the degree of pass-through in particular, to different volatility regimes, low, medium and high. The results show that the exchange rate pass- through coefficient is significantly different across all three volatility regimes only during recession.