Scale-specific importance of weather variables for explanation of variations of electricity consumption: The case of Prague, Czech Republic

In this paper we explore the relative importance of the outside temperature and sunshine duration for the explanation of variations of electricity consumption in Prague, Czech Republic. An assessment of relative importance is made on various time scales ranging from the shortest ones associated with abrupt changes up to those associated with medium-run changes. Wavelet analysis is used to accomplish this task. We show that relative importance is scale-specific, i.e. depends on the analyzed time scale. Sunshine duration is generally the more important explanatory variable on the shortest time scales and the outside temperature dominates on higher time scales. The reason for the outside temperature being an inferior explanatory variable on the shortest time scales is a low variability of the outside temperature on these time scales and a dampened reaction of electricity consumption to abrupt changes in the outside temperature. Our results show that sunshine duration should be considered relevant when modeling electricity consumption.