Scenario analysis of accelerated coal phase-out by 2030 : a study on the European power system based on the EUCO27 scenario using the METIS model

The present report is a hands-on exercise by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) using the METIS model (Artelys, 2017). The area covered by the analysis extends to the 28 EU member states plus Norway, Switzerland and the Western Balkans. The model is used on two variations of the European Commission EUCO27 scenario built to simulate the impacts of an accelerated coal phase-out policy unfolding during the next decade. One of the first results is that the simulated coal-fired capacity retirement will lead to conditions of insufficient power adequacy in certain areas. The two new scenarios restore adequacy by expanding the European power system in two opposing directions. The first is an expansion-as-usual scenario, based on new thermal peaking capacity. The second represents a scenario, where additional optimally placed renewable capacity, coupled with interconnection upgrades and limited storage, appear equally effective in restoring adequacy to the affected regions.