Scenario analysis of pollutants loads to European regional seas for the year 2020 : Part I: Policy options and alternative measures to mitigate land based emission of nutrients

A spatially explicit statistical approach (GREEN model) applied to continental Europe on a sub catchment basis, is used to link input from anthropogenic activities and nutrient loads into European Seas (namely nitrogen and phosphorous). Effectiveness of environmental legislation is assessed at the horizon 2020, emphasizing the regional differences between European countries as well as the respective contribution of anthropogenic changes and hydrological fluctuation in nutrient exports. The set of scenarios analyzed includes a business as usual situation, a full implementation of on going policy options, a change in European diet based on a strong reduction of meat intake, and optimized management of agricultural practices. All prospective analyses are implemented for EU-27 and are discussed in terms of capacities to mitigate land based emissions of nutrient, and also according to their impacts on the loads of nutrient exported to European coastal areas.