Scenarios for the aviation industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025

A Delphi panel of aviation experts is used to anticipate probable and wildcard scenarios on the future of aviation in 2025. According to the experts’ estimations, the passenger, business aviation, and air cargo segments will be faced with 27 probable high-impact developments. These include long-haul growth primarily linked to emerging countries, a number of substitution threats, liberalization and deregulation, increasing industry vulnerability, finiteness of fossil fuels, and emissions trading. The emergence of low-cost cargo carriers and air cargo substitution by sea transportation were identified as potential surprises. Several wildcard scenarios were identified such as natural catastrophes, era of virtual communication, and home-producing “fabbing†society.