Scenarios and strategies for vocational education and lifelong learning in Europe : summary of findings and conclusions of the joint Cedefop/EFT project (1998-2002)

The joint Cedefop/ETF research project has developed the scenario methodology and applied it to the fields of vocational training and lifelong learning. Projecting current trends into the future frequently produces contradictory or divergent results. Strategy development for education and training systems often involves a considerable degree of uncertainty about the future in the context of unprecedented global, economic, socio-cultural and technological change. The scenario method works within this grain of uncertainty. It can be applied at local, national, European and international level. The project involved a partnership of research institutes from ten countries, five from the EU and five from central and eastern Europe. The scientific and technical coordination was performed by the Max Goote Expert Centre at Amsterdam University. The survey helped to understand the vocational training systems in the linked contexts of economic and technological change, changes in society, work and the labour market and in the changing training/skills environment. Scenarios were developed for a time ten years hence. They built in an analysis of trends and uncertainties as well as of their importance and likelihood of occurrence. The purpose was to draw the attention of actors and stakeholders to strategically important factors for the future shaping of training and lifelong learning, whether on a national or European decision-making level. This report sets out project findings in a broader context. We hope that it will contribute to the task of promoting relevant and sustainable policies for VET and lifelong learning. The content of the brochure is being published for as wide distribution as possible. A full report on all details of the second phase will be made available by Cedefop and ETF later in 2002. The report on phase 1, national reports on both phases and conference reports can be consulted and downloaded via the respective window of Cedefop's website : www.trainingvillage.gr.