Schätzung der Stillen Reserve mit dem Mikrozensuspanel 2001-2004 : eine Machbarkeitsstudie

"By arranging the Microcensus (the German Labour Force Survey) as a set of panel data it is possible to carry out longitudinal analyses. As participation in the survey is obligatory by law, the cases of non-response are minimal. For that reason the number of cases available is comparably high, so that analyses are even possible for small groups. This applies, for instance, to such a sub-population as the hidden labour force - an unused potential of the labour market that can contribute to securing the labour supply. The aim of this feasibility study is to assess whether the Microcensus Panel 2001-2004 can be used for the analysis of the hidden labour force. Due to the kind of data the study sets up the priority in the estimation of the discouraged workers, which might be understood as a subgroup of the hidden labour force. Discouragement has been defined according to the characteristics 'desire for work', 'looking for a job', and availability. The results show that it is possible to identify the discouraged workers in the Microcensus 2001-2004. However the analysis is limited by spatial mobility because the Microcensus has been designed as an area sample and is characterised by the fact that households which move elsewhere are no longer interviewed. As a result, only persons who do not move are covered by the Microcensus. As mobility is probably related to the labour market status this feature of the sampling might cause biased panel estimation. Unfortunately the panel weights are only of limited use as well. In addition, because of the high requirements of anonymisation, only the transition between 2002 and 2003 can be analysed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))