Searching for Evidence of Long-Run PPP from a Post Bretton Woods Panel : Separating the Wheat from the Chaff

This paper reexamines the issue of long-run PPP using multiple panel tests in the framework of confirmatory analysis. Application of six panel tests under competing null hypotheses to the real exchange rates of 21 industrial countries yields seemingly contradictory evidence on the parity during the post-Bretton Woods period. Regardless of numeraire currency, four I(1) panel tests unanimously reject the null hypothesis in favor of long-run PPP, whereas two I(0) panel tests lend little support to the parity at conventional significance levels. Confirmatory analysis suggests that this puzzling result can be explained either by nonlinear dynamics of the real exchange rates or by a mixture of I(0) and I(1) series in the panel. Monte Carlo experiments indicate that potential mix of I(0) and I(1) series is more relevant to the empirical finding. The use a sequential classification method sorts out six real exchange rates which exhibit most persistent deviations from long-run equilibrium. Systematic behavior of these series can be characterized better by country specific factors than by observable macroeconomic variables