Sequencing and the Success of Gradualism: Empirical Evidence from China's Agricultural Reform

This paper provides evidence regarding gains to agricultural market liberalization in China. We empirically identify the different effects that incentive reforms and gradual market liberalization have on China's agricultural economy during its transition period. We find that average gains within the agricultural sector to incentive reform exceed gains to market liberalization by a factor of ten. Our method of analyzing the effects of transition policies on economic performance can be generalized to other reform paths in other transition economies.