Setting the framework for a Business Strategy Assessment Model

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present the Business Strategy Assessment Model (BSAM) approach, in an attempt to explore the principle dynamics of an energy‐economic system with emphasis on the private actors' point of view and the impact different policy instruments may have on the decisions of private actors with different characteristics. Design/methodology/approach – In the BSAM model, investment decisions under consideration depend on their perceived financial value. Basis for the financial valuation of an investment option is formed by simulating market dynamics with alternative price scenarios. The outputs include: investment strategies, derived as a function of the (uncertain) state vector of future market conditions and risk premium, calculated by contrasting the expected net present value for the optimal timing of the investment and the expected net present value of an immediate investment generation module of the BSAM, while both of these outputs are estimated for each available technology option. Findings – Different models make different assumptions shedding light upon different aspects of the socio‐economic systems they attempt to analyze and hitherto, no such model succeeds in incorporating all the perceptions that are driving the integration of energy policies. BSAM is based on the notion that a convergence between policy evaluation and business strategy assessment models could be truly beneficial for regulators that aim to derive effective energy policies. Both the algorithm adopted and the structure of the modules of BSAM facilitate the analysis of complex interactions in a firm's decision making process, and even more the what‐if analyses needed for alternative policy measure evaluation. Originality/value – Setting the framework for a modelling approach that incorporates the role of risk‐return perceptions of private actor's with diverse features, portfolio effects, path dependence and agent competition, into appraising energy and climate policies, and suggest that the heterogeneous world of investors requires reflexive assessment techniques. Above and beyond, understanding the drivers and triggers of firm's investment strategies will allow improving the effectiveness of energy policies.