Shaping of the Risk of a Series-Parallel Manufacturing Structure Maintenance According to Quasi-Coherence and the K-Th Survival Value

The paper presents the author's model of the property of quasi-coherence defined in a set of correlations, in which four subsets are isolated, and then conditions guaranteeing the continuity of the flow between the considered technical objects are defined for them. In addition, the concept of the K-th survival value was introduced, which was used to determine the stochastic criterion for the stability of the production system. The use of the developed algorithm makes it possible to analyse a complex technical system at three levels: determine the probability of timely execution of a set of tasks, stability of the system based on empirical data and real-time risk control. The presented model can be included in the group of methods for multifactorial risk assessment. The introduced criterion of stochastic stability of the production system has been verified for data whose distributions of correct operation times and failure times are some random variables from the gamma distribution family. With the use of formulas describing the distribution functions of the difference of these variables, the values of the K-th survival value were calculated for individual technical objects, and then the potential causes of loss of stability in this system were indicated