Short Run Causal Relationship between Inflation and Stock Returns - An Empirical Study of BRICS Markets

Equity investment is assumed to be a good hedge against inflation since long time. This paper examines short run causal relationship between inflation and stock return in emerging BRICS markets. The study covers a comprehensive period of 13 years from the year 2000 to 2013 using quarterly data. The regression results reveal a significant positive relationship between changes in inflation and stock returns only in case of Brazil. But, Granger causality results reveal unidirectional causality from stock return to changes in inflation in Russia, India and South Africa and bidirectional causality in China. Hence, there seem to be a cause and effect relationship between stock returns and inflation in emerging markets. The results are of pertinent importance in today's context where emerging markets are facing the problems of rising inflation and volatile stock returns. The policy regulators need to understand these dynamics between inflation and stock returns to ensure better regulation of the markets. For investors particularly large and institutional investors the study findings support trading based on inflation forecasts efficiency of Indian stock market