Short-Run Effects of Fiscal Policy with Forward-Looking Financial Markets

We explore the short-run effects of fiscal policy using simulations of an empirical, rational-expectations, open-economy macromodel developed at the Federal Reserve Board. Based on this model, we find that tax cuts and spending increases generally stimulate economic activity in the short run, contrary to the extreme view that forward-looking financial markets more than offset the direct expansionary impulse of those actions. However, the magnitude of the stimulus is greatly attenuated by the financial-market feedback. For example, a sustained cut in personal income taxes raises output by less than the amount of the tax cut itself, and it likely reduces output (relative to baseline) in the first several years if phased in gradually over time. Our results also show that the estimated stimulus imparted by fiscal policy is sensitive to reasonable variation in the model’s parameters.