Short term effects of moderate carbon prices on land use in the New Zealand emissions trading system: LURNZ-climate land use change simulations

The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) was introduced through the Climate Change Response Act in September 2008 and remains in force. The forestry sector has been directly affected by the NZ ETS since 1 January 2008 and stationary energy, liquid fuels and industrial emissions have been affected since 1 July 2010. When it is fully implemented in 2015 it will cover all sources and gases including agricultural emissions. Using the Land Use in Rural New Zealand model (LURNZ), we simulate rural land use changes that could be driven by the NZETS in order that we can explore their potential implications for emissions and removals (sequestration) and rural incomes and land values. This paper documents our simulation methods and presents short term (up to 2015) simulations for moderate prices ($25 New Zealand dollars per tonne of CO2-e) where our current modelling techniques are most robust.