Six Steps to Overcome Bias in the Forecast Process

A technically sound forecast goes nowhere if it is not accepted by those in power, whether they are politicians or upper management. Elaine notes that often the forecast gets manipulated to satisfy political ends or meet targets and plans. Politics is also about biases, motivations, and interests, and comes into play when various incentives and reward structures influence the forecast. She maintains that we need to examine some common problems that organizations face and provide solutions that allow the technically sound forecast to prevail, free of manipulation or bias. She describes a case study in the politics of budget forecasting and offers six strategies to overcoming organizational politics. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005