Slowly, but Changing: How Does Genuine State Dependence Affect Female Labor Supply on the Extensive and Intensive Margin

In this paper I develop an intertemporal discrete choice model of female labor supply that allows to analyze state dependence and labor supply along the extensive and the intensive margin. Drawing on microsimulation the nonlinearities in the household budget set are captured and thus work incentives of both spouses can be accurately described. Unobserved heterogeneity is modeled nonparametrically and the initial conditions problem is explicitly accounted for. The estimation results show that state dependence is significantly positive at the extensive margin, yet modest on the intensive margin. Using the Markov chain property, I analyze the dynamics of labor supply behavior. I find that labor supply elasticities on both margins differ significantly between the short and long run.